1. Tourism and Macroeconomy — Fuel for the Market
- 35 million international tourists in 2024 brought in 1.8 trillion ฿ to Thailand and laid the foundation for renewed growth in 2025. (TAT Newsroom)
- Phuket International Airport handled 17.2 million passengers in 2024 (–5% from pre-COVID peak, but +23% YoY) and expects 18 million in 2025. (Wikipedia, Bangkok Post)
Tourism development is the main driver of demand for rental and investment property: hotel occupancy pulls up short-term rental rates, while infrastructure projects (airport expansion worth 6 billion ฿) support long-term potential.
2. National Context: How Foreign Buyer Activity Has Shifted
2023
- Foreign nationals completed 14,449 transactions (specifically — freehold title transfers) worth 73.1 billion ฿. That’s +25% in volume and +23% in value compared to 2022.
- The surge is due to pent-up demand: China fully reopened, Russians wintered en masse in Thailand, and banks simplified transfers up to 10 million ฿.
2024
- Slightly more transactions — 14,573, but total value fell to 68.2 billion ฿. Average ticket size decreased (≈ 4.7 million ฿ or ≈ 106,000 ฿/m²).
- Reason: A new “mass premium” layer emerged — India, Kazakhstan, Malaysia entered with tickets of 3–6 million ฿, diluting the dominance of large Chinese and Russian purchases.
Q1 2025
- Only flash data from REIC is available: 3,756 units (+11.6% YoY) totaling ≈ 18.6 billion ฿; foreigners accounted for a record 28.6% of total value.
- A clear marker of “premiumization” — transaction volume remains stable, but average price is rising again.
3. Why Prices Keep Rising — Market Price Trends
| Metric | Change 2024 → 2025* | Source |
|---|---|---|
| National Housing Price Index (nominal) | +2.55% | (Global Property Guide) |
| Condominium Price Index (YoY, Q4 2024) | +2.46% | (Global Property Guide) |
| Avg. Condo Price in Phuket | ≈ 140,000 ฿/m² (+0.6%) |
Three-year pricing curve on Phuket:
- Condos. After a strong rebound in 2023 (+4.8% vs. 2022), the average price on the west coast stabilized at ≈ 140,000 ฿/m² by end of 2024, adding 0.59% YoY. In early 2025, portals report a median of 96,310 ฿/m² across the island — reflecting data dilution from more affordable inland areas, while prime seaside properties continue appreciating (thailand-property.com).
- Villas. Growth here is more stable: in 2023 prices rose 3–4%, reaching ≈ 115,000 ฿/m² by Dec 2024 (+3.5% YoY), with this median holding steady in Q1 2025 (fazwaz.com). Bang Tao/Layan deals are already closing at 170–180,000 ฿/m², highlighting the gap between mass and luxury segments.
- Low-rise houses. The most affordable segment (townhouses and single-detached homes) holds around 60,000 ฿/m² — just 2–3% above 2023, though the trend remains positive, driven by rising land and material costs (InvestAsian).
Overall, pricing trends on the island are highly location- and property-type-dependent. The general condo market shows consolidation after a recovery phase, while resort complexes near the sea continue appreciating. Villas also remain a major driver, offering significant capital growth potential.
Key Growth Drivers
- Land scarcity on the island’s west coast limits new supply.
- Rising costs of materials and land push developer pricing upward (nationthailand).
- Shift in demand toward premium formats (villas and spacious condos), offering better rental yields and long-term value.
4. Who’s Buying and Why: Updated Top-5 Foreign Buyers (REIC, end of 2024)
- China — 5,670 transactions (≈39% of all foreign deals).
The share fell by –14% YoY due to weakening purchasing power among potential investors: China's economic slowdown, yuan depreciation, and strict capital controls. Still, Chinese buyers remain No. 1: cumulative volume remains massive, the 60-day visa-free entry simplifies travel, and Thailand’s value-for-money is still 3–4x better than in Hainan or mainland cities. Bangkok Post
- Myanmar — 1,388 transactions (9.5%).
Civil war and kyat collapse are pushing capital abroad: transfers more than doubled vs. 2023, putting Myanmar in second place for the first time. Freehold condos in Thailand are seen as a “safe haven,” with average ticket size remaining moderate — 5–7 million ฿. Bangkok Post Reuters
- Russia — estimated 3rd place by volume (exact REIC data not disclosed, but fewer than Myanmar’s 1,388 deals).
After two years in the silver spot, Russians have dropped to third nationally by volume and fourth by total value. This is due to ruble depreciation in H2 2024 and tighter Russian capital controls. Still, in Phuket, Russians remain the top nationality in villa purchases, seeking “winter homes” with 10–15% yield and long-stay potential without visa headaches. Bangkok Post
- USA — ≈4% of transactions.
Americans traditionally buy large condos in Bangkok and Phuket for portfolio diversification and long-term rental income; with US interest rates rising, Thailand’s 6–8% USD returns remain attractive. Bangkok Post
- Taiwan — around 4–5% of the market.
Visa-free entry, geopolitical concerns over the Taiwan Strait, and the favorable Destination Thailand Visa encourage purchase of 1–2 BR beachside condos as “second homes” and rental assets.
What does this mean for investors?
The market has become more multipolar: even if Chinese activity cools, absolute volume remains strong, and rising demand from Myanmar, along with steady interest from Russians, Americans, and Taiwanese, ensures continued liquidity. For Phuket, this creates sustained demand for villas and resort condos, supporting both pricing and occupancy.
5. Regulatory Changes — Who Benefits and Why
- 100% mortgage financing (May 2025 – June 2026)
Aimed at Thai buyers and resident expats who can verify income locally. For them, the down payment is effectively zero — reducing entry barriers and stimulating domestic demand. Reuters
- Registration fees reduced to 0.01% (April 2025 – June 2026)
Most beneficial for families and investors buying properties under 7 million ฿ — typical of Thailand’s middle class and some foreign budget condo buyers. Fee savings can reach hundreds of thousands of baht. Business Times, Facebook
- Foreign quota raised to 75% + 99-year leaseholds — in draft stage
This proposal targets foreign investors — especially those seeking premium condos or beachfront villas. Longer ownership periods and more freehold allocation improve market liquidity and make Thailand more competitive vs. Singapore or Malaysia. Bangkok Post, thailand-construction.com
- Repeal of automatic “30+30+30” lease renewals (March 2025)
Thailand’s Supreme Court ruled that lease extensions must now be renewed via a new contract registered with the Land Department. This increases the importance of legal due diligence — but does not eliminate the leasehold model’s benefits if structured clearly. Addleshaw Goddard
- 60-day visa waiver + 5-year Destination Thailand Visa
The expanded visa waiver covers 93 countries. The DTV allows digital nomads to stay up to 180 consecutive days. These changes mainly target foreign professionals and “winterers,” expanding the rental base and encouraging “second home” purchases. Thai Consulate LA, ThaiEmbassy.com
Thailand and Phuket Real Estate Outlook — Summary
- Tourism is booming, ensuring strong rental flows.
- Prices are growing moderately, with no bubble signs — the entry window remains open.
- Demand is diversifying: beyond China and Russia, Myanmar, Taiwan, and India are now active, reducing dependency on any single market.
- Regulators are easing rules (100% LTV, 99-year lease discussions) — a clear pro-industry signal.
- Phuket is outperforming thanks to land scarcity, premium infrastructure, and stable villa yields of 10–15%.
📌 What to do now? Consider projects with flexible ownership structures and guaranteed rental returns. Our agency will help you select vetted properties and assist through the new legal framework.
